Pavement repairs are expected to change pavement deterioration in two major prospects. The first is instantly improving pavement conditions just after the intervention, and the second is possibly changing the rate of deterioration relative to the deterioration rate before the interventions. The information on instantaneous change and the effect on deterioration after repair will help agencies decide how effective repairs were and what kinds of repairs have the best output under the desired constrained requirements. This research employs a condition prediction model and cost optimization formulations derived from statistical analysis, utilizing historical pavement data and empirical deterioration patterns. The differences in deterioration rates of repaired and unrepaired scenarios, and the comparative rates of various interventions, are analyzed to evaluate effectiveness. A comprehensive repair effect estimation, incorporating time-dependent and condition-dependent variables alongside a deterioration rate prediction model, is framed to forecast future pavement conditions. The optimization formulation integrates predicted deterioration rates with budget constraints and desired condition targets, ensuring the most efficient allocation of resources for pavement management and intervention planning. This approach ensures road managing agencies optimize their resources by providing realistic estimates of repair effects on pavement conditions immediately after interventions and accurate predictions of future conditions deterioration.
A case study is presented in this research, analyzing pavement management and repair practices for Addis Ababa City Roads and illustrating the applicabilit of the proposed approach. The repair effects model was developed using the deterioration rates after repair and repair type information. The intervention costs and deterioration rate information for each repair type are combined to create a budget optimization framework for interventions. Finally, an intervention plan is developed based on the optimization formulation, in alignment with the agency's annual budget and condition constraints Hence, the study offers agencies practical strategies to optimize pavement management, improve repair effectiveness, and enhance resource allocation.